Polybot

A Python trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets, with three modes: paper for validating a strategy against simulated fills, live for real trading through the Polymarket CLOB API, and copy for tracking chosen wallets and replicating their trades at proportional size. The core strategy hunts cheap tail bets priced between 2 and 12 percent, on the thesis that these markets systematically underprice genuine tail risk in political and geopolitical events, while filtering out sports markets, anything expiring within a day, and any book with a spread wider than 10 percent. The risk rules are deliberately hardcoded rather than tunable per trade — a fixed unit size, hard caps on total deployed capital, on any single position, and on aggregate exposure to correlated themes, plus a standing prohibition on averaging down — because the failure mode of a bot like this is not a bad model but a loosened limit. Exits ladder out in stages as a position moves toward multiples of its entry price, with a forced reduction before expiry.